Retired in › 2001

Retiring in 2001: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 2001 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 23 years, with $570k left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 23 years, with $700k left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned -0.8% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 1.5%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 23 years from 2001, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 2000 · 2002 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 2001 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 2001 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 23 years, with $570k left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 23 years, with $700k left.