Safe withdrawal rates: every year since 1871
The highest fixed withdrawal rate that never ran out over 30 years since 1871 was 3.5% with either 60/40 or all stocks. Over 50 years it was 3% with 60/40 and 3.25% with all stocks.
Each cell is the share of historical start years in which a fixed, inflation-adjusted withdrawal lasted the whole period. Open any cell for the worst start years, the effect of cutting spending in bear markets or holding a cash bucket, and charts of every path.
60/40 portfolio
| Rate | 20 years | 25 years | 30 years | 40 years | 50 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3.25% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
| 3.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 94% |
| 3.75% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 95% | 89% |
| 4% | 100% | 99% | 96% | 89% | 75% |
| 4.25% | 100% | 97% | 93% | 77% | 66% |
| 4.5% | 100% | 95% | 86% | 70% | 57% |
| 4.75% | 97% | 91% | 77% | 62% | 46% |
| 5% | 96% | 84% | 74% | 53% | 40% |
| 5.25% | 93% | 78% | 66% | 47% | 35% |
| 5.5% | 88% | 73% | 62% | 43% | 34% |
| 5.75% | 84% | 68% | 56% | 39% | 25% |
| 6% | 79% | 64% | 53% | 35% | 23% |
100% stocks
| Rate | 20 years | 25 years | 30 years | 40 years | 50 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3.25% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 3.5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% |
| 3.75% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 96% | 93% |
| 4% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 94% | 90% |
| 4.25% | 100% | 96% | 94% | 89% | 80% |
| 4.5% | 99% | 95% | 91% | 80% | 75% |
| 4.75% | 96% | 92% | 84% | 77% | 71% |
| 5% | 94% | 85% | 81% | 71% | 67% |
| 5.25% | 90% | 82% | 79% | 68% | 61% |
| 5.5% | 87% | 79% | 72% | 62% | 52% |
| 5.75% | 83% | 74% | 71% | 58% | 50% |
| 6% | 81% | 71% | 68% | 54% | 47% |
US stocks (S&P composite) and 10-year Treasuries, real total returns, rebalanced yearly, no fees or taxes. See the methodology.
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