FIRE guides

Plain answers to early-retirement questions with numbers from every US market period since 1871: the 4% rule, safe withdrawal rates and more.

• Does the 4% rule work? Tested against every year since 1871: The 4% rule lasted 30 years in 96% of US start years since 1871, but 90% over 50 years. Success rates for 3% to 5%, all-stock and 60/40.
• Safe withdrawal rate for early retirement: 40 and 50 year horizons: How much can you withdraw if you retire at 40 or 45? Historical success rates for 3% to 5% over 40 and 50 years, and how to pick a rate.
• Fixed vs variable withdrawals: what a 7% variable rule does to your money: Spending a share of each year’s balance, with a floor and cap, vs steady inflation-adjusted withdrawals over 30, 40 and 50 years since 1871.
• Barista FIRE: how a part-time job changes your early retirement: A $20k-a-year part-time job for the first 10 years of a 40-year early retirement took the 4% rule from 94% to 100% of historical start years.
• How to calculate your FIRE number (FIRE, Lean, Fat, Coast, Barista): Your FIRE number is yearly spending divided by your withdrawal rate. How each kind of FIRE changes it, and what return to assume.

Research

• Key findings: headline numbers from every start year since 1871.
• Safe withdrawal rates: 3% to 6% over 20 to 50 years.
• Retired in any year: how the 4% rule did from each start year.
• Methodology: data sources and how the simulation works.