Key findings: withdrawal rates since 1871

12 numbers from running every fixed withdrawal rate from 3% to 6%, over 20 to 50 years, through every US start year since 1871. $1M start, spending raised with inflation, real total returns, no fees or taxes.

1. A 60/40 portfolio at 4% lasted 30 years in 96% of US start years since 1871; 100% stocks also lasted 96%.
2. The highest fixed withdrawal rate that never ran out over 30 years was 3.5% with either 60/40 or all stocks.
3. Over 50 years, the highest rate that never ran out was 3% with 60/40 and 3.25% with all stocks.
4. At 4% over 50 years, 100% stocks lasted 90.4% of the time, 60/40 75% and 40/60 47.1%: over long retirements, more bonds meant more failures.
5. Cutting spending 20% whenever the portfolio was more than 20% below its real high took 4% over 30 years from 96% to 100% with 60/40.
6. The same bear-market cut took 4% over 50 years from 75% to 98.1% with 60/40.
7. A two-year cash bucket, spent after down years for stocks, changed 4% over 30 years from 96% to 94.4% with 60/40: cash drag offset the protection.
8. At 4% over 30 years, the portfolio ended above its starting value after inflation in 57% of start years; the median ending was $1.2M from $1M.
9. At 5% over 30 years, 60/40 lasted 74.2% of the time; at 6%, 53.2%.
10. 1966 was the worst year to retire: with 60/40 it ran out in 48 of the 65 rate and horizon combinations tested, more than any other start year.
11. Retiring in 1982 at 4% with all stocks left $6.2M after 30 years; the highest rate that lasted from 1982 was at least 6%.
12. Over 20 years, even 6% lasted 79.1% of the time with 60/40 and 81.3% with all stocks.

Dataset 2026.11.1, updated 2026-11-03. Explore the full table of rates, any retirement start year, or the methodology. Quote freely with a link to https://fire.pipedhq.com/key-findings.