# FIRE.PipedHQ

> FIRE.PipedHQ is a historical withdrawal-rate simulator that tests early-retirement plans against every market period since 1871, including bucket strategies, bear-market spending rules and paid-off-housing scenarios.

It replays a plan through each US market start year since 1871 in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars and reports how often the money lasted, instead of assuming one average return. It also models housing in the 200 largest US metros, Social Security, ACA health insurance, part-time work and 401(k)/Roth/brokerage tax strategy. Free to use.

## Key findings
- A 60/40 portfolio at 4% lasted 30 years in 96% of US start years since 1871; 100% stocks also lasted 96%.
- The highest fixed withdrawal rate that never ran out over 30 years was 3.5% with either 60/40 or all stocks.
- Over 50 years, the highest rate that never ran out was 3% with 60/40 and 3.25% with all stocks.
- At 4% over 50 years, 100% stocks lasted 90.4% of the time, 60/40 75% and 40/60 47.1%: over long retirements, more bonds meant more failures.
- Cutting spending 20% whenever the portfolio was more than 20% below its real high took 4% over 30 years from 96% to 100% with 60/40.
- The same bear-market cut took 4% over 50 years from 75% to 98.1% with 60/40.
- A two-year cash bucket, spent after down years for stocks, changed 4% over 30 years from 96% to 94.4% with 60/40: cash drag offset the protection.
- At 4% over 30 years, the portfolio ended above its starting value after inflation in 57% of start years; the median ending was $1.2M from $1M.
- At 5% over 30 years, 60/40 lasted 74.2% of the time; at 6%, 53.2%.
- 1966 was the worst year to retire: with 60/40 it ran out in 48 of the 65 rate and horizon combinations tested, more than any other start year.
- Retiring in 1982 at 4% with all stocks left $6.2M after 30 years; the highest rate that lasted from 1982 was at least 6%.
- Over 20 years, even 6% lasted 79.1% of the time with 60/40 and 81.3% with all stocks.

## Research
- [Key findings](https://fire.pipedhq.com/key-findings): headline statistics, updated with each dataset.
- [Safe withdrawal rates](https://fire.pipedhq.com/safe-withdrawal-rate): success rates for 3% to 6% over 20 to 50 years, with a page per rate and horizon (for example https://fire.pipedhq.com/safe-withdrawal-rate/4-percent/30-years).
- [Retired in any year](https://fire.pipedhq.com/retired-in): what the 4% rule did from each start year (for example https://fire.pipedhq.com/retired-in/1966).
- [Methodology](https://fire.pipedhq.com/methodology): data sources (Shiller), construction and limitations.

## Guides
- [Does the 4% rule work? Tested against every year since 1871](https://fire.pipedhq.com/guides/4-percent-rule-historical-test): Withdrawing 4% of the starting portfolio, then the same inflation-adjusted amount each year, lasted 30 years in 96% of US start years from 1871 on (119 of 124), with either 100% stocks or 60/40. Over 40 years it lasted 94% of the time with all stocks and 89% with 60/40; over 50 years, 90% and 75%.
- [Safe withdrawal rate for early retirement: 40 and 50 year horizons](https://fire.pipedhq.com/guides/safe-withdrawal-rate-early-retirement): For a 40 to 50 year retirement, 3.5% of the starting portfolio (adjusted for inflation) lasted in 98% or more of US start years since 1871 with all stocks, while 4% lasted 90% to 94% of the time. A 3% rate never ran out.
- [Fixed vs variable withdrawals: what a 7% variable rule does to your money](https://fire.pipedhq.com/guides/variable-withdrawal-rules): Withdrawing 7% of each year’s balance, never below 70% or above 100% of a target budget, lasted 30 years in 75% of US start years since 1871, against 52% for a steady 7%. Over 50 years it lasted 42%, against 31%. Variable rules survive more often because spending falls in bad years, but 7% is still far above the roughly 3.5% to 4% that steady spending supports.
- [Barista FIRE: how a part-time job changes your early retirement](https://fire.pipedhq.com/guides/fun-jobs-barista-fire): Adding a part-time job paying $20,000 a year (about $16,500 after tax) for the first 10 years of retirement took a $1M portfolio spending $40k a year from lasting 40 years in 94% of US start years since 1871 to 100%. Early income matters most because it protects the portfolio in the years when a crash does the most damage.
- [How to calculate your FIRE number (FIRE, Lean, Fat, Coast, Barista)](https://fire.pipedhq.com/guides/how-to-calculate-fire-number): Your FIRE number is your yearly spending in retirement divided by your withdrawal rate: 25 times spending at 4%, about 28.6 times at 3.5%. Lean and Fat FIRE use a smaller or larger budget; Barista FIRE subtracts what part-time work covers; Coast FIRE is the amount that grows to your full number by a later retirement age without more saving.

## Tools
- [Your FIRE journey, from high school to financial independence](https://fire.pipedhq.com/journey): Answer a few questions for a FIRE blueprint: your number, when you could be free, which accounts to fund each month, and a PDF packet.
- [Early retirement calculator: every historical start year since 1871](https://fire.pipedhq.com/plan): Test an early-retirement plan against every start year since 1871: variable withdrawals, cash bucket, housing, Social Security and health insurance.
- [The same retirement plan in 60 cities](https://fire.pipedhq.com/grid): Compare how a FIRE plan holds up across up to 60 of the 200 largest US metros, using local rents, home prices, property tax and insurance.
- [Where owning a home costs least](https://fire.pipedhq.com/own): Rank the 200 largest US metros by the monthly cost to own a median home at today’s mortgage rate, with property tax, insurance and a house-hack builder.
- [Where to save for early retirement](https://fire.pipedhq.com/save): Compare 401(k), match, Roth IRA and brokerage with 2026 tax brackets, early-withdrawal penalties, Roth conversion ladders, 72(t) and ACA subsidies.
- [Fun jobs: work you enjoy, less you need saved](https://fire.pipedhq.com/fun-jobs): See how much portfolio a part-time job you enjoy replaces in early retirement, with typical pay for coaching, teaching, fitness, bartending and more.
- [How long it takes to reach your number](https://fire.pipedhq.com/grow): How long monthly investing took to reach a target in every start month since 1871, for the S&P 500 and dozens of indexes, ETFs and funds.
- [Careers and cities on the path to FIRE](https://fire.pipedhq.com/careers): Compare careers and cities by pay, cost of living and how fast each gets you to financial independence.
- [Data and method](https://fire.pipedhq.com/data): Sources and construction of the historical dataset behind FIRE.PipedHQ: US stock and bond real total returns since 1871, inflation, housing and pay data.
- [Tutorials](https://fire.pipedhq.com/journey/tutorials): Short walk-throughs of each FIRE.PipedHQ tool for every life stage.

## Optional
- [Full text of the guides, findings and methodology](https://fire.pipedhq.com/llms-full.txt)