Retired in › 2002

Retiring in 2002: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 2002 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 22 years, with $1.2M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 22 years, with $969k left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 0.7% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 2.7%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 22 years from 2002, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 2001 · 2003 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 2002 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 2002 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 22 years, with $1.2M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 22 years, with $969k left.