Retired in › 2000

Retiring in 2000: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 2000 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 24 years, with $192k left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 24 years, with $606k left.

The dot-com crash came first, and the 2008 financial crisis less than a decade later.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned -3% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 0.5%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 24 years from 2000, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 1999 · 2001 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 2000 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 2000 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 24 years, with $192k left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 24 years, with $606k left.