Retired in › 1999

Retiring in 1999: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 1999 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 25 years, with $416k left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 25 years, with $584k left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned -4.4% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix -0.5%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 25 years from 1999, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 1998 · 2000 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 1999 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 1999 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 25 years, with $416k left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 25 years, with $584k left.