Retired in › 1998

Retiring in 1998: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 1998 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 26 years, with $1.2M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 26 years, with $992k left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 2.4% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 3.2%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 26 years from 1998, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 1997 · 1999 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 1998 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 1998 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 26 years, with $1.2M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 26 years, with $992k left.