Retired in › 1907

Retiring in 1907: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 1907 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $668k left; a 60/40 portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $459k left.

The Panic of 1907, a banking crisis, cut stock prices nearly in half that year.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 2.3% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 2%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

The highest fixed rate that lasted 30 years from 1907 was 4.5% with all stocks and 4.25% with 60/40 (tested in 0.25% steps from 3% to 6%).

← 1906 · 1908 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 1907 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 1907 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $668k left; a 60/40 portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $459k left.

What was a safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring in 1907?

The highest fixed rate that lasted 30 years from 1907 was 4.5% with all stocks and 4.25% with 60/40 (tested in 0.25% steps from 3% to 6%).