Retired in › 2009

Retiring in 2009: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 2009 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 15 years, with $3.6M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 15 years, with $1.7M left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 11.8% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 7.6%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 15 years from 2009, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 2008 · 2010 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 2009 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 2009 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 15 years, with $3.6M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 15 years, with $1.7M left.