Retired in › 2006

Retiring in 2006: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 2006 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 18 years, with $1.6M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 18 years, with $1.1M left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 4.4% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 4.5%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 18 years from 2006, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 2005 · 2007 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 2006 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 2006 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 18 years, with $1.6M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 18 years, with $1.1M left.