Retired in › 2004

Retiring in 2004: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 2004 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 20 years, with $1.6M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 20 years, with $1.1M left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 4.5% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 4.2%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

History so far covers 20 years from 2004, through 2023; the full 30 years aren't in yet.

← 2003 · 2005 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 2004 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 2004 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio was still going after 20 years, with $1.6M left; a 60/40 portfolio was still going after 20 years, with $1.1M left.