Retired in › 1965

Retiring in 1965: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 1965 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio ran out in year 30, in 1994; a 60/40 portfolio ran out in year 27, in 1991.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned -3.5% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix -2.6%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

The highest fixed rate that lasted 30 years from 1965 was 3.75% with either all stocks or 60/40 (tested in 0.25% steps from 3% to 6%).

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Questions

What happened if you retired in 1965 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 1965 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio ran out in year 30, in 1994; a 60/40 portfolio ran out in year 27, in 1991.

What was a safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring in 1965?

The highest fixed rate that lasted 30 years from 1965 was 3.75% with either all stocks or 60/40 (tested in 0.25% steps from 3% to 6%).