Retired in › 1928

Retiring in 1928: did the 4% rule survive?

Retiring at the start of 1928 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $1.8M left; a 60/40 portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $1.5M left.

Over the first 10 years, stocks returned 3.1% a year after inflation and the 60/40 mix 5.6%. The first decade matters most: losses early, while withdrawals continue, are what break a plan.

The highest fixed rate that lasted 30 years from 1928 was 5.25% with all stocks and at least 6% with 60/40 (tested in 0.25% steps from 3% to 6%).

← 1927 · 1929 → · The 4% rule over 30 years · All start years

Questions

What happened if you retired in 1928 with the 4% rule?

Retiring at the start of 1928 with $1M and spending $40,000 a year adjusted for inflation (the 4% rule), a 100% stock portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $1.8M left; a 60/40 portfolio lasted all 30 years, with $1.5M left.

What was a safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring in 1928?

The highest fixed rate that lasted 30 years from 1928 was 5.25% with all stocks and at least 6% with 60/40 (tested in 0.25% steps from 3% to 6%).